Adding the numbers, since they settle part of this. Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look. It is a small discipline and it changes what you notice.
A narrower follow-up, since the general answer is now clear:
How long did you give it before you decided it was working?
BiostatsBrad said:Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.
I do not accept the framing. The question has been narrowed to the version that has a tidy answer, and the part that was dropped is the part the OP actually asked about.
That is the short version; the long version is somebody else's post.
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View ResultsBiostatsBrad said:Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.
That is right for the common case. Whether it is right for the case being asked about depends on a detail that has not been given.
Closing the loop on my own question.
Closing this out. What actually changed my mind was the point about waiting for a trend instead of reading a single measurement, which is embarrassing in hindsight and worth saying anyway.