Short answer first, then the reasoning. The honest range is roughly 20 to 40% of total loss as lean mass without deliberate resistance training, and roughly 10 to 20% with it plus adequate protein. Both numbers need a caveat that matters: "lean mass" on a DEXA is not muscle. It includes water, glycogen and the lean fraction of organs, and glycogen alone carries about three grams of water per gram. A large early lean drop is mostly the glycogen and water going, which is why the first scan flatters and the second is the honest one.

sarah.morrison said:

The honest range is roughly 20 to 40% of total loss as lean mass without deliberate resistance training, and roughly 10 to 20% with it plus adequate…

Right, and protein targets should be set on a reference weight rather than current weight. Setting 1.6 g/kg on a starting weight of 130kg produces a target nobody hits on a suppressed appetite.

nancy_portland said:

I lifted three times a week throughout and still lost lean mass.

Can confirm the pattern nancy_portland describes. There is also a quality change that the scan cannot see. Weight loss shifts fiber-type distribution toward Type I and improves mitochondrial density and insulin-stimulated glucose uptake per fiber — so the muscle you keep is metabolically better even though there is less of it. That does not make the loss irrelevant, but it explains why function often holds up better than the number suggests.

If somebody has the primary source to hand I would rather cite it than paraphrase it.

Clinical perspective, offered as context rather than as advice.

Physical therapist weighing in on lean mass. I work with bariatric and metabolic patients daily.

The resistance training evidence is critical here:

The Lundgren 2024 JAMA paper[1] showed that structured resistance training preserved 73% more lean mass in GLP-1 patients vs medication alone. When discussing lean mass, we MUST include the exercise component.

My minimum prescription: 3x/week compound movements (squat, deadlift, press, row), progressive overload, 7-10K steps/day, and 1.2-1.6g protein/kg/day.