The figures, for anyone assembling their own picture. One habit that pays for itself: post the method alongside the number. A figure without its method cannot be checked, and an unchecked figure is how this community accumulates folklore.

A narrower follow-up, since the general answer is now clear:

How would you tell the difference between that and the alternative explanation?

Moderator note: leaving this open. It is being argued well and the disagreement is the useful part. Carry on.

SleepDoc_PDX said:

One habit that pays for itself: post the method alongside the number.

Agreed on the substance. I would put less weight on the timescale, because two months of anything is not enough to distinguish a trend from a wobble.

SleepDoc_PDX said:

One habit that pays for itself: post the method alongside the number.

This answered a question I did not know how to ask. Taking it to my next appointment.