julia.endo said:

There is a difference between no evidence and evidence of no effect, and this subject is one where the two get swapped freely in both directions.

Agreed, with the usual condition: that holds for the average and this board is a collection of individuals. A population claim and a personal prediction are different things and get quoted interchangeably.

Correct me if the detail matters more than I have assumed.

tammy_FL said:

That is right for the weekly injectables.

Thank you for spelling out the reasoning rather than just the conclusion.

julia.endo said:

There is a difference between no evidence and evidence of no effect, and this subject is one where the two get swapped freely in both directions.

This is where I part company with the consensus forming above. I think the framing smuggles in the conclusion. Ask it the other way round and the obvious answer reverses, which usually means the question is doing the work.

One concrete data point for the thread. If you are comparing against somebody else’s result, check that you are comparing the same measurement taken the same way. Most of the apparent contradictions in these threads dissolve at that step.

Moderator note: two posts asking for a source have been merged into one. Please search the thread before asking again. Tagging this one for the weekly digest.