NurseKim_ATL said:

There is a difference between no evidence and evidence of no effect, and this subject is one where the two get swapped freely in both directions.

Fair, and it stops being fair at the extremes. The middle of the range is well understood; the ends are where the honest answer is that nobody knows.

stefan_berlin said:

Right, and one flattering data point from a group buy is not consistency.

Genuinely useful, thank you. I had the facts and not the framework.

NurseKim_ATL said:

There is a difference between no evidence and evidence of no effect, and this subject is one where the two get swapped freely in both directions.

This is where I part company with the consensus forming above. The counter-case has not been addressed. Somebody upthread described the situation that does not fit, and the thread moved on rather than engaging with it, which is the failure mode this board is supposed to avoid.

Adding the numbers, since they settle part of this. Keep the original post as written when you update it, and add the correction underneath. An edited-away mistake is invisible to the next person who makes it.

Moderator note: good thread. Keeping it here rather than moving it, because the question is general enough to be useful. No action needed from anybody.