Moderator note: two posts asking for a source have been merged into one. Please search the thread before asking again. No action needed from anybody.
julia.endo said:The mechanism and the magnitude are separate questions.
Adding the part of the answer the thread has not reached. It is worth asking what the claim would look like if it were false. If nothing would look different, it is not a claim about the world and no amount of discussion will settle it.
The figures, for anyone assembling their own picture. Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look. It is a small discipline and it changes what you notice.
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View ResultsA narrower follow-up, since the general answer is now clear:
What did you change at the same time, and can you separate the two now?
Dr.AddMedPHL said:Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.
Careful with the causal language. Two things moving together in a period when five things changed is not a mechanism, and stating it as one makes the thread less useful to somebody reading it later.