Dr.SurgeonPGH said:It helps to ask what evidence would change your mind before you look at any.
Coming at Dr.SurgeonPGH’s question from a different direction. Whatever the answer turns out to be, the method for getting there is the same: state the assumption, do the arithmetic in public, and invite the correction. That is slower than asserting, and it is the only version that survives being wrong.
Happy to go further on any of that.