sarah_TO said:

International shipping tracking for cross-border ordering orders: my experience with customs in the US when ordering from overseas: Seized and…

That reframing is the part I needed. Sending this to two other people who asked me the same thing last week.

Adding the clinical framing, because it changes how the question reads. The honest answer is that the effect is real, the magnitude is contested, and the individual variation is larger than either. Those three things can all be true at once, and most arguments here are two people holding different parts of that.

NurseLeah_Nash said:

The useful move here is to separate what is established from what is widely repeated.

Careful with the causal language. Two things moving together in a period when five things changed is not a mechanism, and stating it as one makes the thread less useful to somebody reading it later.

The figures, for anyone assembling their own picture. Practical: whatever you change, write down the date and the reason. In three months the reason is what you will have forgotten, and the reason is what makes the record worth having.

Moderator note: leaving this open. It is being argued well and the disagreement is the useful part.