CarlaRPh_TPA said:

It is worth asking what the claim would look like if it were false.

There is a second half to this that has not been said yet. The distinction that resolves most of these threads is between what is true on average and what is true for one person. Both are real; they answer different questions and get quoted as if they were the same one.

One concrete data point for the thread. Keep the original post as written when you update it, and add the correction underneath. An edited-away mistake is invisible to the next person who makes it.

Happy to go further on any of that.

Following on from CarlaRPh_TPA — and this may be the naive question:

How would you tell the difference between that and the alternative explanation?

wendy_avl said:

Keep the original post as written when you update it, and add the correction underneath.

Careful with the causal language. Two things moving together in a period when five things changed is not a mechanism, and stating it as one makes the thread less useful to somebody reading it later.

wendy_avl said:

Keep the original post as written when you update it, and add the correction underneath.

That is right, and it stops being right at the edges. The general case is well behaved; the interesting cases in this thread are all at the boundary where the general case breaks.