DanielChem_CHI said:

The useful move here is to separate what is established from what is widely repeated.

I read this differently. The confidence in this thread is running ahead of the evidence, and I would rather the uncertainty were stated than smoothed over because it is unsatisfying.

Adding the numbers, since they settle part of this. For anyone reading later: the numbers in this thread are worth checking against a primary source before you act on them, including mine. Half the figures circulating in this community trace back to a secondary summary that dropped a qualifier.

Dr.NateNeph said:

The confidence in this thread is running ahead of the evidence, and I would rather the uncertainty were stated than smoothed over because it is…

There is a second half to this that has not been said yet. Worth answering the question that was asked rather than the one behind it. The narrow version usually has an answer; the broad version usually does not, and answering the broad one is how a thread stops being useful.

Following on from KetoKyle — and this may be the naive question:

Was that from a primary source or from a summary of one?

Reporting back.

Closing the loop. The answer turned out to depend on the detail I had left out of the opening post, which is a lesson about how to ask rather than about the subject.