Dr.PathRoch said:

The mechanism and the magnitude are separate questions.

Agreed on the substance. I would put less weight on the timescale, because two months of anything is not enough to distinguish a trend from a wobble.

I would rather be corrected than agreed with, if it comes to it.

PeptideChemSF said:

Right, and the exception is worth naming rather than left implied, because the exception is where people get into trouble.

That reframing is the part I needed. Adding it to my notes with a link back to this thread.

Dr.PathRoch said:

The mechanism and the magnitude are separate questions.

Pushing back on Dr.PathRoch here. I think the framing smuggles in the conclusion. Ask it the other way round and the obvious answer reverses, which usually means the question is doing the work.

I would rather be corrected than agreed with, if it comes to it.

Adding the numbers, since they settle part of this. The boring version of this is the one that works, and the boring version is: measure a baseline, change one variable, wait, measure again under the same conditions. Nobody wants that answer and it is still the answer.

Moderator note: good thread. Keeping it here rather than moving it, because the question is general enough to be useful. Carry on.