LeilaHI said:

I would put less weight on the timescale, because two months of anything is not enough to distinguish a trend from a wobble.

This matches mine closely enough to be worth saying so out loud. Posting only so the count is not one.

LeilaHI said:

I would put less weight on the timescale, because two months of anything is not enough to distinguish a trend from a wobble.

There is a second half to this that has not been said yet. The distinction that resolves most of these threads is between what is true on average and what is true for one person. Both are real; they answer different questions and get quoted as if they were the same one.

I would rather be corrected than agreed with, if it comes to it.

One concrete data point for the thread. For anyone reading later: the numbers in this thread are worth checking against a primary source before you act on them, including mine. Half the figures circulating in this community trace back to a secondary summary that dropped a qualifier.

One thing that is still open after LeilaHI’s answer:

Was that from a primary source or from a summary of one?

FDA_TrackerJim said:

For anyone reading later: the numbers in this thread are worth checking against a primary source before you act on them, including mine.

Worth saying that the confident version of this is more useful to the person writing it than to the person reading it.

Happy to go further on any of that.