VanRx_Mike said:

The useful move here is to separate what is established from what is widely repeated.

Same experience, arrived at from the opposite direction.

hank_denver said:

One habit that pays for itself: post the method alongside the number.

Agreed, with the usual condition: that holds for the average and this board is a collection of individuals. A population claim and a personal prediction are different things and get quoted interchangeably.

hank_denver said:

One habit that pays for itself: post the method alongside the number.

That reframing is the part I needed.

Clinical perspective, offered as context rather than as advice. Take it one variable at a time. Almost every unanswerable question in these threads is unanswerable because three things changed in the same fortnight, and no amount of subsequent argument can untangle them after the fact.

Moderator note: the sourcing question belongs in the vendor section and has been split out.