DebRD_ATL said:

The mechanism and the magnitude are separate questions.

DebRD_ATL has the substance of this right. The condition it depends on is worth stating. Yes, and the corollary is less popular: if the reasoning holds, it also holds where it produces an answer we do not like.

oliver_london said:

I would put less weight on the timescale, because two months of anything is not enough to distinguish a trend from a wobble.

Thank you for spelling out the reasoning rather than just the conclusion.

DebRD_ATL said:

The mechanism and the magnitude are separate questions.

I read this differently. The confidence in this thread is running ahead of the evidence, and I would rather the uncertainty were stated than smoothed over because it is unsatisfying.

One concrete data point for the thread. Keep the original post as written when you update it, and add the correction underneath. An edited-away mistake is invisible to the next person who makes it.

Moderator note: a post naming a supplier has been edited. Discuss suppliers in the review sections, not here. Tagging this one for the weekly digest.