From the other side of the consultation, briefly. The mechanism and the magnitude are separate questions. Agreeing that something happens says nothing about whether it happens enough to act on.

Following on from rachel_ABQ — and this may be the naive question:

How would you tell the difference between that and the alternative explanation?

CarlaRPh_TPA said:

The mechanism and the magnitude are separate questions.

Worth saying that the confident version of this is more useful to the person writing it than to the person reading it.

CarlaRPh_TPA said:

The mechanism and the magnitude are separate questions.

That is right, and it stops being right at the edges. The general case is well behaved; the interesting cases in this thread are all at the boundary where the general case breaks.

Moderator note: two posts asking for a source have been merged into one. Please search the thread before asking again. Report rather than reply if it drifts again.