Dr.KarenChen said:The honest answer is that the effect is real, the magnitude is contested, and the individual variation is larger than either.
Same experience, arrived at from the opposite direction. Nothing to add that would improve it.
Dr.KarenChen said:The honest answer is that the effect is real, the magnitude is contested, and the individual variation is larger than either.
There is a second half to this that has not been said yet. Worth answering the question that was asked rather than the one behind it. The narrow version usually has an answer; the broad version usually does not, and answering the broad one is how a thread stops being useful.
The figures, for anyone assembling their own picture. One habit that pays for itself: post the method alongside the number. A figure without its method cannot be checked, and an unchecked figure is how this community accumulates folklore.
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View ResultsOne thing that is still open after Dr.KarenChen’s answer:
How would you tell the difference between that and the alternative explanation?
OP back with an update, since a thread like this is useless without one.
For the archive: it took about six weeks rather than the two I expected, and the difference between those two numbers was the whole of my problem.