A narrower follow-up, since the general answer is now clear:

Was that from a primary source or from a summary of one?

dan_philly said:

Update — I was wrong in the opening post, specifically about the direction.

Filing a mild objection. Mild because I might be wrong; an objection because nobody has addressed the case that does not fit. Not convinced. The evidence being cited is consistent with the conclusion and also consistent with two other conclusions nobody has ruled out.

Happy to go further on any of that.

dan_philly said:

Update — I was wrong in the opening post, specifically about the direction.

Agreed, with the usual condition: that holds for the average and this board is a collection of individuals. A population claim and a personal prediction are different things and get quoted interchangeably.

dan_philly said:

Update — I was wrong in the opening post, specifically about the direction.

Thank you for spelling out the reasoning rather than just the conclusion.

From the other side of the consultation, briefly. Whatever the answer turns out to be, the method for getting there is the same: state the assumption, do the arithmetic in public, and invite the correction. That is slower than asserting, and it is the only version that survives being wrong.