LipidDoc_ATL said:

Whatever the answer turns out to be, the method for getting there is the same: state the assumption, do the arithmetic in public, and invite the…

Coming at LipidDoc_ATL’s question from a different direction. It helps to ask what evidence would change your mind before you look at any. If nothing would, the discussion is not about evidence, and it is better to say so early than to spend nine posts discovering it.

One concrete data point for the thread. Keep the original post as written when you update it, and add the correction underneath. An edited-away mistake is invisible to the next person who makes it.

One thing that is still open after LipidDoc_ATL’s answer:

What would you measure differently if you were starting again?

SleepDoc_PDX said:

Keep the original post as written when you update it, and add the correction underneath.

I read this differently from SleepDoc_PDX, on substance rather than tone. Pushing back on the consensus forming here. Consistency is not the same as correctness, and a board that agrees with itself quickly is usually agreeing with the first person who sounded certain.

SleepDoc_PDX said:

Keep the original post as written when you update it, and add the correction underneath.

Agreed on the substance. I would put less weight on the timescale, because two months of anything is not enough to distinguish a trend from a wobble.

I would rather be corrected than agreed with, if it comes to it.