Dr.RaviCardio said:

It helps to ask what evidence would change your mind before you look at any.

This matches mine closely enough to be worth saying so out loud.

PharmacoVig_BOS said:

Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.

This is where I part company with the consensus forming above. Pushing back on the consensus forming here. Consistency is not the same as correctness, and a board that agrees with itself quickly is usually agreeing with the first person who sounded certain.

PharmacoVig_BOS said:

Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.

Agreed, and one caution: a single measurement is not a measurement. Anything that moves day to day needs a trend before it means anything at all.

PharmacoVig_BOS said:

Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.

Thank you for spelling out the reasoning rather than just the conclusion.

Moderator note: good thread. Keeping it here rather than moving it, because the question is general enough to be useful.