Dr.PeteFamMed said:

If two explanations both fit, the useful question is which one predicts something the other does not.

Same experience, arrived at from the opposite direction.

Dr.PeteFamMed said:

If two explanations both fit, the useful question is which one predicts something the other does not.

There is a second half to this that has not been said yet. The mechanism and the magnitude are separate questions. Agreeing that something happens says nothing about whether it happens enough to act on.

The figures, for anyone assembling their own picture. Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look. It is a small discipline and it changes what you notice.

Following on from Dr.PeteFamMed — and this may be the naive question:

What would you measure differently if you were starting again?

Reporting back.

Update — I was wrong in the opening post, specifically about the direction. Correcting it here rather than editing it away.