NicoleRaleigh said:If you are going to change something, change one thing and give it long enough to express itself.
This is exactly what I could not find anywhere else.
Adding the clinical framing, because it changes how the question reads. The distinction that resolves most of these threads is between what is true on average and what is true for one person. Both are real; they answer different questions and get quoted as if they were the same one.
rachel_ABQ said:The distinction that resolves most of these threads is between what is true on average and what is true for one person.
Can confirm. Same sequence, different timescale. I had assumed I was the exception until I read this.
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View Resultsrachel_ABQ said:The distinction that resolves most of these threads is between what is true on average and what is true for one person.
There is a second half to this that has not been said yet. Relative and absolute effects need reading together. A 20% relative reduction on a high baseline risk is a large absolute benefit; the same relative figure on a low baseline risk is a small one, and press summaries almost always quote the relative number because it is bigger.
Reporting back.
Follow-up: I read the paper rather than the summary and the qualifier I was missing was in the second paragraph of the results.