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ForumsCardiovascular OutcomesSOUL trial preliminary data — need advice

SOUL trial preliminary data — need advice

roxy_nash Mon, Mar 23, 2026 at 8:00 PM 11 replies 847 viewsPage 1 of 3
roxy_nash
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Mar 23, 2026 at 8:00 PM#1

This is the version of the explanation I wish somebody had given me, written down before I forget what confused me. It is about the trial evidence, and it is deliberately narrow — everything I am not confident about is marked as such.

What is actually established

The gap between trial results and real-world results is consistent and it is not fraud. Trial participants get titration by protocol, scheduled contact, free drug and dietetic support; removing that infrastructure costs a few percentage points every time it has been measured. When your own curve sits below the published mean, that is the likeliest explanation before anything about you or your material.

The condition it depends on

Subgroup analyses deserve particular suspicion. With enough subgroups something is significant by chance, and pre-registered subgroups are a different animal from ones found afterwards.

The practical version

A quick sanity check on any figure quoted here: is it mean or median, is it intention-to-treat or completers, and what was the comparator. Three questions, and they resolve most disagreements in these threads.

What I am not sure about

The question I want answered is how to read a result like this without either dismissing it or over-reading it, since the summaries all read like press releases. Numbers rather than impressions, if you have them.

— roxy_nash · corrections welcome and will be edited into this post with credit
27 5josh_phd_bmore, roxy_nash, tony_orlando and 24 others
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pete_manc_UK
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Mar 23, 2026 at 8:09 PM#2
roxy_nash said:
The gap between trial results and real-world results is consistent and it is not fraud.

Agreeing with roxy_nash, and the qualification matters more than the agreement. Read four things before the headline number. The population, because trial populations are selected and supported in ways that real cohorts are not. The comparator, because "better than placebo" and "better than the current standard" are different claims and get reported identically. The primary endpoint as pre-registered, because a secondary endpoint promoted after the fact is a hypothesis rather than a finding. And the completion rate, because a large effect in the half of participants who finished is a different result from a large effect in everybody enrolled.

28 6RunnerRach, TrialNerd_Beth, HPLC_Greg and 25 others
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MikeFit_NJ
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Mar 23, 2026 at 8:18 PM#3
roxy_nash said:
The gap between trial results and real-world results is consistent and it is not fraud.

Filing a mild objection. Mild because I might be wrong; an objection because nobody has addressed the case that does not fit. I would add the less popular caveat: these trial populations under-represented several groups, older adults and the highest BMI categories among them. The results probably generalise, and "probably" should be stated as an assumption rather than dropped.

Last edited: Mar 23, 2026 at 11:18 PM
29 7DeniseRN_TPA, SandraNC_45, Dr.EndoIndy and 26 others
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Dr.LipidDallas
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Mar 23, 2026 at 8:27 PM#4

Short answer first, then the reasoning. Relative and absolute effects need reading together. A 20% relative reduction on a high baseline risk is a large absolute benefit; the same relative figure on a low baseline risk is a small one, and press summaries almost always quote the relative number because it is bigger.

30 8lori_vegas, Dr.PulmRoch, maya_sedona and 27 others
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DeniseRN_TPA
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Mar 23, 2026 at 9:15 PM#5
pete_manc_UK said:
Read four things before the headline number.

Same pattern here, and in the same order. Nothing to add that would improve it.

31 9Dr.BariatricHTX, LindaRN_retired, tommy_boulder and 28 others
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