A narrower follow-up, since the general answer is now clear:
How would you tell the difference between that and the alternative explanation?
Closing the loop on my own question.
Late follow-up. I did not do what was suggested, I did something adjacent, and it worked; posting the difference in case it matters to somebody.
SleepDoc_PDX said:Practical: whatever you change, write down the date and the reason.
That holds where the measurement is reliable. Where it is noisy — and a lot of what gets tracked here is noisy — the same reasoning produces confident nonsense.
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Shop Reference StandardsSleepDoc_PDX said:Practical: whatever you change, write down the date and the reason.
Bookmarking. The distinction being drawn above is the one nobody else makes.
Clinical perspective, offered as context rather than as advice. Start from the measurement rather than the conclusion. Almost every disagreement here turns out to be two people measuring different things and comparing the numbers anyway.