This is the version of the explanation I wish somebody had given me, written down before I forget what confused me. It is about the lipid panel, and it is deliberately narrow — everything I am not confident about is marked as such.
What is actually established
ApoB is the more informative number and it is cheap. LDL-C estimates cholesterol mass in atherogenic particles; ApoB counts the particles, and it is particle count that tracks risk — which is why the two can disagree and why the disagreement is the clinically interesting case. Triglycerides fall substantially with weight loss and improved insulin sensitivity, HDL moves modestly, and LDL-C often barely moves at all, which surprises people who expected everything to improve together.
The condition it depends on
HsCRP is worth reading alongside them. The inflammatory-marker fall is often the most striking change on a panel and it is consistent with the cardiovascular outcome data.
What I am not sure about
The question I want answered is whether an unchanged LDL-C alongside a large triglyceride fall is a good result or a bad one, because ApoB and LDL-C seem to be telling different stories. Not looking for reassurance. Looking for the part I have got wrong.
— lori_vegas · corrections welcome and will be edited into this post with credit