VendorMark said:

Shot day Thursday report relevant to baseline bloodwork: Week 28.

This matches mine closely enough to be worth saying so out loud.

dave_SLC said:

Give anything pharmacological four weeks before you judge it, and give anything measured weekly a four-point rolling average before you call it a…

This is where I part company with the consensus forming above. Pushing back on the consensus forming here. Consistency is not the same as correctness, and a board that agrees with itself quickly is usually agreeing with the first person who sounded certain.

dave_SLC said:

Give anything pharmacological four weeks before you judge it, and give anything measured weekly a four-point rolling average before you call it a…

That is right, and it stops being right at the edges. The general case is well behaved; the interesting cases in this thread are all at the boundary where the general case breaks.

dave_SLC said:

Give anything pharmacological four weeks before you judge it, and give anything measured weekly a four-point rolling average before you call it a…

That reframing is the part I needed. I will report back once I have actually tried it.

Moderator note: good thread. Keeping it here rather than moving it, because the question is general enough to be useful. Carry on.