raj_cambridge said:

Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.

Correct as far as it goes. The part it does not cover is what to do when the honest answer is "not enough data", which is more often than anyone likes.

raj_cambridge said:

Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look.

Genuinely useful, thank you. I had the facts and not the framework.

Clinical perspective, offered as context rather than as advice. It helps to ask what evidence would change your mind before you look at any. If nothing would, the discussion is not about evidence, and it is better to say so early than to spend nine posts discovering it.

james_edin said:

It helps to ask what evidence would change your mind before you look at any.

Second this.

Closing the loop on my own question.

Update: the eight-week restart pattern people described is exactly what happened. I nearly abandoned it at week five.