Dr.EndoEP said:

Training does two things here and only one of them is on the scale.

Pet owner bonus of training: my dog is also losing weight because we're walking 2-3x more than before. His vet is thrilled. 🐕

We went from a 5-minute shuffle around the block to 30-minute walks through the neighborhood. He's more energetic, I'm more energetic, and we're both healthier.

Get a dog. Or borrow one. Walking a dog is the best low-impact exercise motivation that exists. They never let you skip a walk. 🐾

Following on from rachel_ABQ — and this may be the naive question:

How long did you give it before you decided it was working?

lisa_labSD said:

Pet owner bonus of training: my dog is also losing weight because we're walking 2-3x more than before.

Adding the part of the answer the thread has not reached. The mechanism and the magnitude are separate questions. Agreeing that something happens says nothing about whether it happens enough to act on.

I would rather be corrected than agreed with, if it comes to it.

Closing the loop on my own question.

Closing this out. What actually changed my mind was the point about waiting for a trend instead of reading a single measurement, which is embarrassing in hindsight and worth saying anyway.

newstart_MO said:

The mechanism and the magnitude are separate questions.

Correct, and worth adding that it is reversible. Nothing being described here is a one-way door, which changes how cautious it is reasonable to be.

That is the short version; the long version is somebody else's post.